2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook provided by NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The predictions indicate a highly active season, with an 85% chance of above-normal hurricane activity. There’s only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a mere 5% chance of a below-normal season.
Forecasted Numbers Based on 70% Confidence from Forecasters
- Total Named Storms: 17 to 25 (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- Hurricanes: 8 to 13 (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- Major Hurricanes: 4 to 7 (category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher)
Factors Influencing the Season
The expectation of above-normal activity is driven by several key factors:
- Near-Record Warm Ocean Temperatures: The Atlantic Ocean is experiencing near-record warm temperatures, which can fuel more intense and frequent storms.
- La Niña Conditions in the Pacific: The development of La Niña typically leads to a reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic, allowing storms to grow stronger and more organized.
- Reduced Atlantic Trade Winds: Lower trade winds can contribute to the formation and strengthening of tropical systems.
- Less Wind Shear: Reduced wind shear in the atmosphere creates a more conducive environment for the development and intensification of hurricanes.
“These factors are expected to combine to produce an active hurricane season,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
In addition, Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, highlighted the impact of climate patterns: “El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, but the ocean warmth usually favors more storm development.”
As we approach the start of the season, it is crucial for those in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed and prepared. NOAA’s predictions serve as a reminder of the importance of having a hurricane prep in place. Stay safe and stay informed!
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